Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.557046e-01 0.301146 0.349359 0.404034 0.464033 0.527600 0.599767
2025-02-09 1.839127e-01 0.243766 0.311894 0.393998 0.489113 0.594762 0.719915
2025-02-16 1.400446e-01 0.208418 0.291572 0.397309 0.525467 0.673268 0.854119
2025-02-23 1.043484e-01 0.175657 0.268450 0.392681 0.549595 0.736617 0.971822
2025-03-02 7.295534e-02 0.141671 0.238051 0.374182 0.553296 0.773574 1.057715
2025-03-09 5.621687e-02 0.124567 0.226984 0.378210 0.583732 0.842636 1.182983
2025-03-16 4.029364e-02 0.104584 0.208464 0.369346 0.595416 0.887144 1.277817
2025-03-23 3.330453e-02 0.097988 0.208626 0.385925 0.640870 0.975230 1.428512
2025-03-30 2.480267e-02 0.085964 0.198257 0.385619 0.662237 1.031662 1.539294
2025-04-06 1.847079e-02 0.076167 0.189886 0.387020 0.685193 1.089934 1.652770
2025-04-13 1.441433e-02 0.070040 0.186829 0.395953 0.718617 1.162393 1.785402
2025-04-20 1.151917e-02 0.065692 0.186261 0.408415 0.757106 1.242042 1.928278
2025-04-27 9.055801e-03 0.061615 0.185906 0.421541 0.797614 1.326249 2.080012
2025-05-04 6.023266e-03 0.053724 0.176667 0.418885 0.814029 1.377193 2.188006
2025-05-11 4.316108e-03 0.049294 0.173846 0.426818 0.846528 1.450994 2.327612
2025-05-18 2.631371e-03 0.042996 0.165726 0.424549 0.862777 1.501785 2.436425
2025-05-25 1.119314e-03 0.034248 0.149837 0.406521 0.853001 1.514635 2.493026
2025-06-01 6.129355e-04 0.030920 0.146570 0.411616 0.880052 1.580764 2.623491
2025-06-08 1.887575e-04 0.025583 0.136583 0.402724 0.883656 1.612376 2.706099
2025-06-15 1.093079e-04 0.025020 0.140011 0.420546 0.931737 1.710013 2.881800
2025-06-22 1.908816e-05 0.021828 0.134807 0.420387 0.949545 1.762850 2.995015
2025-06-29 3.085136e-07 0.019217 0.130669 0.421964 0.970087 1.819824 3.114422
2025-07-06 NaN 0.017855 0.130341 0.431471 1.004259 1.897567 3.263829